5 Things to Watch for in Dubai
Preview of COP28, the most important climate conference — or any conference — this year
By Lance Gould
CEO, Brooklyn Story Lab
For about the last quarter century, the most consequential meeting of the year takes place in November and December. The UN’s climate conference — a.k.a. the UNFCCC (UN Framework Convention on Climate Change), a.k.a. COP (Conference of the Parties) — convenes representatives from each UN Member State, as well as other public sector leaders, experts from the private sector, academia, and the media, and those with an interest in a livable planet. The host country rotates on a geographical basis, and this year’s conference (COP28, Nov. 30 to Dec. 12) will take place in Dubai.
The stakes are high — as UN Secretary-General Antonio Gutteres has said, if we don’t take action, we’re looking at a “hellish” future. What can we expect from Dubai? Here are five patterns, themes, and takeaways to watch for:
1) The Global Stocktake: When the landmark Paris Agreement was signed at the conclusion of COP21 in 2015, all its signatories (which at the time was all 193 UN Member States plus the European Union, Vatican City, and Niue) made voluntary pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and outline those commitments in what was called an NDC (Nationally Determined Contribution).
There was skepticism then (and still today) that the voluntary nature of the NDCs would be insufficient to make an impact on global warming, but the Paris Agreement contained an Article that required an every-five-years assessment of where all countries were in the trajectory of their commitments to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. That Article 14 is the Global Stocktake, and the process takes about three years. The first Global Stocktake began at COP26 in Glasgow two years ago, and will formally conclude in Dubai.
So at COP28, we will get the first real look at where we are, worldwide, in meeting the challenge of the climate crisis. The general belief is we should be prepared for some sobering news about that reality.
2) Oil Influence: This year’s site will offer a home-field advantage for the fossil-fuel industry. The 2023 COP will be just the second to take place in a petro-state (Qatar hosted COP18 in 2012). It will also be the first at which oil companies will officially have a seat at the table — not just as lobbyists but with their own pavilion. As Al Gore’s Climate Reality Project points out in a piece called “The Fossil Fuel Industry Has a Fairy Tale to Sell You,” because the head of COP28 will be Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, “balancing the COP presidency with his day job as CEO of the UAE's national oil company, [the fossil-fuel industry will] get control of the agenda.” Al Jaber’s ADNOC (Abu Dhabi National Oil Company) is the largest in the UAE and the 12th-largest in the world.
3) Brutal Honesty: Al Jaber has certainly said the right things, calling for “brutally honest” negotiations. We shall see whether such honesty takes place — or is even welcome.
For his part, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has delivered some brutally honest assessments, noting that an incredibly dangerous 3-degree Celsius rise in average global temperatures is a possibility, which will lead to "hellish" conditions on Earth. Negotiators in Paris were concerned about a 1.5-degree Celsius rise — now, after a summer with suffocating heat domes and out-of-control wildfires, which was the hottest ever on record, we’re looking at the potential of double that.
4) Word of the Week: There is a newly developing loophole of sorts for greenhouse gas emissions. When there is a specific plan to to capture those emissions, they are categorized by some as “abated.” So a new push by some negotiators and governments is to not specifically phase out all emissions — just the “unabated” ones.
Journalist Emily Atkin — founder and editor in chief of the great “Heated” newsletter (“for people who are pissed off about the climate crisis”) — casts serious doubt on that: “The word ‘unabated,’ vague and undefined, will provide enough of a window for countries to continue expanding fossil fuel production and increasing their emissions, while claiming to be doing what’s best for the planet. I believe this for no reason other than a decades-long track record of B.S. from these summits, coupled with ever-rising emissions thanks to oil industry lobbyists.”
5) Solutions: There is hope — and there are plenty of admirable people and projects who will be at COP competing for attention for their worthy initiatives. Brooklyn Story Lab is honored to be partnering with nonprofits like Blue Planet Alliance (working to end the use of carbon-based fuel, led by their work in Hawaii), Pyxera Global (launching a new initiative to preserve and protect cultural heritage and artifacts from the ravages of climate change), the Global Warming Mitigation Project (decarbonizing the planet by discovering the world’s best climate leaders and deploying the resources they need to scale their solutions, through competitions like Keeling Curve Prize), and the Samuel Lawrence Foundation (which brings focus to issues of concern to the planet’s environment, particularly the dangers of nuclear power).
This Friday (December 1), watch the Samuel Lawrence Foundation’s “First Fridays” webinar series (moderated by Brooklyn Story Lab), “Live from Dubai,” which will give a spotlight to some of the solutions noted above.
Lance Gould, CEO of Brooklyn Story Lab, will be in Dubai for COP28. It will be his fifth COP, including COP “zero,” the UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in Brazil, 1992.
